"Only the Paranoid Survive: The Training Manual for Special Managers (New Edition)" Reading Notes#
Author: Andy Grove
Reading Time: 1 hour
These are the notes and excerpts I recorded while reading "Only the Paranoid Survive: The Training Manual for Special Managers (New Edition)" on WeChat Reading.
Chapter 2 Tenfold Change#
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of existing competitors: Are there many competitors? Do they have substantial capital? Are they clearly targeting you?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of the company's suppliers: Are there many suppliers, giving your business enough options; or are there only a few that can choke your throat? Are they provocative and greedy, or are they more cautious and prudent, using long-term evaluations of customer situations as business guidance?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of the company's corporate clients: Are there many corporate clients, or does the business rely on one or two major clients? Do they blame you harshly due to fierce competition, or do they adopt a more moderate attitude?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of potential competitors: These competitors have not yet emerged, but if the situation changes, they may join in. In this sense, they may be stronger than existing competitors, with more substantial funding and a tougher attitude.
· The possibility of your product or service being produced or delivered in other ways: This is often called "substitution," and I believe this is the most lethal point. New technologies and methods can disrupt the old order, establish new rules, and cause dramatic changes in the business environment. This is similar to the impact of road and air transport on rail transport, container shipping on traditional maritime transport, supermarkets on small shops, microprocessors on computing, and digital media on entertainment. Recently, a newly improved theory of competitiveness has added a sixth factor on top of these five:
· Complementary business factors: Complementary businesses are other companies that provide complementary products to customers. Each company's products must combine with those of other companies to achieve greater effectiveness. Some products cannot even be used without combining with others. Cars need gasoline, and gasoline needs cars. Computers cannot function without software, and software cannot function without computers.
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of existing competitors: Are there many competitors? Do they have substantial capital? Are they clearly targeting you?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of the company's suppliers: Are there many suppliers, giving your business enough options; or are there only a few that can choke your throat? Are they provocative and greedy, or are they more cautious and prudent, using long-term evaluations of customer situations as business guidance?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of the company's corporate clients: Are there many corporate clients, or does the business rely on one or two major clients? Do they blame you harshly due to fierce competition, or do they adopt a more moderate attitude?
· The strength, vitality, and capabilities of potential competitors: These competitors have not yet emerged, but if the situation changes, they may join in. In this sense, they may be stronger than existing competitors, with more substantial funding and a tougher attitude.
· The possibility of your product or service being produced or delivered in other ways: This is often called "substitution," and I believe this is the most lethal point. New technologies and methods can disrupt the old order, establish new rules, and cause dramatic changes in the business environment. This is similar to the impact of road and air transport on rail transport, container shipping on traditional maritime transport, supermarkets on small shops, microprocessors on computing, and digital media on entertainment. Recently, a newly improved theory of competitiveness has added a sixth factor on top of these five:
· Complementary business factors: Complementary businesses are other companies that provide complementary products to customers. Each company's products must combine with those of other companies to achieve greater effectiveness. Some products cannot even be used without combining with others. Cars need gasoline, and gasoline needs cars. Computers cannot function without software, and software cannot function without computers.
Chapter 3 The Shape of the Computer Industry#
First, do not blindly seek novelty. Do not improve just to defeat competitors; also consider how to bring substantial benefits to customers. The failures in the history of the personal computer industry are numerous, as manufacturers were superficially driven by the desire to produce "better PCs," while actually deviating from the mainstream standards of the industry. However, the quality of PCs is closely related to compatibility, so "better PCs" of varying quality become a technical oxymoron. Second, in this hyper-competitive horizontal world, when technological innovations or other fundamental changes occur, opportunities knock at your door. Seize this opportunity; the company that reacts first, and only the company that reacts first, while others hesitate, truly has the opportunity, seizing the moment and defeating competitors. In this industry, a time advantage is the most reliable way to gain market share. Conversely, if you go against the trend of new technologies, no matter how noble their aspirations or how great their efforts, they will face failure because they waste precious time. Third, price according to what the market can bear, price according to the quantity of products, and then strive to reduce costs in order to profit from your minimal investment and appropriate pricing. This can help you achieve economies of scale. Necessary large-scale investments will be effective and meaningful because, as a large-scale investor, you have the ability to expand and profit from your investments, sharing and recovering costs. In contrast, cost-based pricing often leads you into niche markets, where you can only capture specific profits, which is not very profitable in today's mass production industries.
First, do not blindly seek novelty. Do not improve just to defeat competitors; also consider how to bring substantial benefits to customers. The failures in the history of the personal computer industry are numerous, as manufacturers were superficially driven by the desire to produce "better PCs," while actually deviating from the mainstream standards of the industry. However, the quality of PCs is closely related to compatibility, so "better PCs" of varying quality become a technical oxymoron. Second, in this hyper-competitive horizontal world, when technological innovations or other fundamental changes occur, opportunities knock at your door. Seize this opportunity; the company that reacts first, and only the company that reacts first, while others hesitate, truly has the opportunity, seizing the moment and defeating competitors. In this industry, a time advantage is the most reliable way to gain market share. Conversely, if you go against the trend of new technologies, no matter how noble their aspirations or how great their efforts, they will face failure because they waste precious time. Third, price according to what the market can bear, price according to the quantity of products, and then strive to reduce costs in order to profit from your minimal investment and appropriate pricing. This can help you achieve economies of scale. Necessary large-scale investments will be effective and meaningful because, as a large-scale investor, you have the ability to expand and profit from your investments, sharing and recovering costs. In contrast, cost-based pricing often leads you into niche markets, where you can only capture specific profits, which is not very profitable in today's mass production industries.
Chapter 4 They Are Everywhere#
He believes that business failures are either because companies have deviated from their users, meaning they have arbitrarily changed previously effective strategies (significant changes), or because their users have abandoned them (subtle changes).
It also reveals a truth from another perspective: the brilliant stars of the previous era are often the last to adapt to change. They are the last to yield to the principle of strategic turning points, suffering more devastating losses than most.
He believes that business failures are either because companies have deviated from their users, meaning they have arbitrarily changed previously effective strategies (significant changes), or because their users have abandoned them (subtle changes).
It also reveals a truth from another perspective: the brilliant stars of the previous era are often the last to adapt to change. They are the last to yield to the principle of strategic turning points, suffering more devastating losses than most.
Chapter 6 How to Detect Them?#
Management master Peter Drucker once quoted a definition of entrepreneurs, saying that entrepreneurs are those who shift resources from low-yield projects to high-yield projects. A passionate and intelligent middle manager handles the resources under his control in this way. These resources can be the allocation of silicon chips by production planners or his arrangement of his work and energy. Are they intentionally planting flowers, or inadvertently inserting willows? At first glance, it seems unintentional, but I believe it is actually a wise choice.
However, if your intuition suggests that a tenfold improvement is enough to excite people and become a new threat factor, you are likely on the edge of observing the beginning of a strategic turning point. Therefore, you should train yourself to think deeply about the issues, distinguishing the pros and cons of the initial model from the long-term potential and significance of the product or technology.
Modern management rules suggest that we should hold data during debates or arguments. This advice is good. Often, people substitute opinions for facts and emotions for analysis. However, data reflects the past, while strategic turning points indicate the future. When data shows that Japanese memory manufacturers are beginning to dominate, we are already in a struggle for survival. You should know when to use data and when to leave it. This may sound somewhat capricious, but you must learn how to argue with data. Sometimes, experience tells you that a certain factor is currently weak and insignificant in data analysis, but it has enormous development potential and will change your business rules in the future. In other words, when dealing with nascent influential trends, you may need to step out of rigid data analysis and rely more on intuition and observations to make judgments.
Management master Peter Drucker once quoted a definition of entrepreneurs, saying that entrepreneurs are those who shift resources from low-yield projects to high-yield projects. A passionate and intelligent middle manager handles the resources under his control in this way. These resources can be the allocation of silicon chips by production planners or his arrangement of his work and energy. Are they intentionally planting flowers, or inadvertently inserting willows? At first glance, it seems unintentional, but I believe it is actually a wise choice.
However, if your intuition suggests that a tenfold improvement is enough to excite people and become a new threat factor, you are likely on the edge of observing the beginning of a strategic turning point. Therefore, you should train yourself to think deeply about the issues, distinguishing the pros and cons of the initial model from the long-term potential and significance of the product or technology.
Modern management rules suggest that we should hold data during debates or arguments. This advice is good. Often, people substitute opinions for facts and emotions for analysis. However, data reflects the past, while strategic turning points indicate the future. When data shows that Japanese memory manufacturers are beginning to dominate, we are already in a struggle for survival. You should know when to use data and when to leave it. This may sound somewhat capricious, but you must learn how to argue with data. Sometimes, experience tells you that a certain factor is currently weak and insignificant in data analysis, but it has enormous development potential and will change your business rules in the future. In other words, when dealing with nascent influential trends, you may need to step out of rigid data analysis and rely more on intuition and observations to make judgments.
Chapter 7 Let Chaos Reign#
This is a crucial point. The replacement of corporate leadership is often not to seek more astute and capable leaders, but because it is necessary to find someone who has no emotional ties to the company's past to manage the company.
This is a crucial point. The replacement of corporate leadership is often not to seek more astute and capable leaders, but because it is necessary to find someone who has no emotional ties to the company's past to manage the company.
Chapter 8 Seeking Order in Chaos#
Why are leaders often unwilling to lead others? I find it puzzling. Looking back, it may be because leaders must make decisions while colleagues, staff, and employees are still arguing about which path to take. This decision must be decisive and clear, yet its success or failure may only be evident years later. This undoubtedly requires immense confidence and courage, presenting a severe test for leaders. In contrast, downsizing a company is much easier, and a lack of confidence is less of an issue—closing factories and laying off employees yield immediate results, and financial personnel readily approve, making it a seemingly risk-free decision.
The consequences of acting too early are far less severe than those of acting too late. If actions are taken too early, the original industry remains intact, and even if a wrong decision is made, it can be easily rectified in time.
Each company's golden action time is not the same. Some companies know when they should respond quickly and take action. They can wait for other companies to test the limits of technology and the capacity of the market before following, catching up, and surpassing them. I call this strategy the "taillight" method. Driving in fog is much easier when following the taillights of the car in front. The danger of the "taillight" strategy is that once you catch up and surpass the car ahead, there are no taillights to guide you, leading to a loss of confidence and ability to find a new direction.
Pursuing a strategic goal, especially in a life-and-death competition, is no easy task; it requires the full energy of the enterprise. There are several reasons for this. First, without a concise strategic direction, it is difficult to lead the enterprise out of the valley of death. A significant amount of energy has already been consumed to reach the current location, and employees are disheartened and blaming each other in the face of the valley of death. In this situation, even if the goal is clear and singular, reaching the other side is challenging; if there are multiple goals at the same time, it is impossible to lead this demoralized team.
Choosing the wrong path will lead to death. However, most companies do not die due to choosing the wrong path, but rather due to indecision, wasting precious resources in the process of hesitant decision-making, thereby ruining their future. The most dangerous thing is to remain stagnant.
When dealing with a large number of people, you should make every effort to communicate with them, clarifying your opinions; any effort is worthwhile. Continuously speak to employees, visit their workshops, gather them together, and repeatedly explain your intentions (pay special attention to answering questions like "So what does this mean...," as this is often the best way to gain others' understanding). Your new ideas and arguments will take time to be accepted, but you will find that constant repetition will clarify the concept of the new direction, allowing employees to understand it more thoroughly. Therefore, speak more, answer more questions; it may seem like a few old sayings going back and forth, but it serves to emphasize the strategic thought.
What we need is a balanced interaction between upper and lower levels, where knowledgeable yet narrow-minded middle managers complement the visionary and holistic senior managers, working together. The opposition between the two can lead to intense debates, but it is through debate that everyone can see the clear vision on the other side of the valley of death, which is more conducive to determining the direction of progress. A company that can consistently handle these two developmental stages—debate (chaos reigns) and purposeful advancement (clearing the chaos)—can be considered a strong adaptive organization. Such companies have two characteristics: 1. They tolerate debate and even encourage it. Intense and uncompromising debates revolve around issues that need to be studied, and participants can speak freely regardless of their position or background. 2. They can make clear decisions, accept clear decisions, and unite the entire organization to support that decision. Organizations with these two characteristics are better equipped to handle strategic turning points.
The vision on the other side of the valley of death represents a new industry order that is difficult to foresee before the transformation occurs. When managers do not see this new world, they do not have a mental blueprint. The process of crossing a strategic turning point must go through a period of confusion, experimentation, and chaos before thoughts can be clarified, a single direction determined, and the layers of fog cleared to reach the destination on the other side of the valley of death. We must listen to the prophecies of Cassandras, actively provoke debate, and continuously explain the company's new direction to make it clearer. Economic losses and personnel changes are inevitable. We must also recognize and accept the fact that not everyone will safely reach the other side; those who cannot survive will face a life vastly different from before. Undoubtedly, crossing the valley of death set by strategic turning points is the greatest ordeal an organizational enterprise must endure. However, when tenfold factors press us, we have no choice but to adapt or succumb to inevitable decline.
Why are leaders often unwilling to lead others? I find it puzzling. Looking back, it may be because leaders must make decisions while colleagues, staff, and employees are still arguing about which path to take. This decision must be decisive and clear, yet its success or failure may only be evident years later. This undoubtedly requires immense confidence and courage, presenting a severe test for leaders. In contrast, downsizing a company is much easier, and a lack of confidence is less of an issue—closing factories and laying off employees yield immediate results, and financial personnel readily approve, making it a seemingly risk-free decision.
The consequences of acting too early are far less severe than those of acting too late. If actions are taken too early, the original industry remains intact, and even if a wrong decision is made, it can be easily rectified in time.
Each company's golden action time is not the same. Some companies know when they should respond quickly and take action. They can wait for other companies to test the limits of technology and the capacity of the market before following, catching up, and surpassing them. I call this strategy the "taillight" method. Driving in fog is much easier when following the taillights of the car in front. The danger of the "taillight" strategy is that once you catch up and surpass the car ahead, there are no taillights to guide you, leading to a loss of confidence and ability to find a new direction.
Pursuing a strategic goal, especially in a life-and-death competition, is no easy task; it requires the full energy of the enterprise. There are several reasons for this. First, without a concise strategic direction, it is difficult to lead the enterprise out of the valley of death. A significant amount of energy has already been consumed to reach the current location, and employees are disheartened and blaming each other in the face of the valley of death. In this situation, even if the goal is clear and singular, reaching the other side is challenging; if there are multiple goals at the same time, it is impossible to lead this demoralized team.
Choosing the wrong path will lead to death. However, most companies do not die due to choosing the wrong path, but rather due to indecision, wasting precious resources in the process of hesitant decision-making, thereby ruining their future. The most dangerous thing is to remain stagnant.
When dealing with a large number of people, you should make every effort to communicate with them, clarifying your opinions; any effort is worthwhile. Continuously speak to employees, visit their workshops, gather them together, and repeatedly explain your intentions (pay special attention to answering questions like "So what does this mean...," as this is often the best way to gain others' understanding). Your new ideas and arguments will take time to be accepted, but you will find that constant repetition will clarify the concept of the new direction, allowing employees to understand it more thoroughly. Therefore, speak more, answer more questions; it may seem like a few old sayings going back and forth, but it serves to emphasize the strategic thought.
What we need is a balanced interaction between upper and lower levels, where knowledgeable yet narrow-minded middle managers complement the visionary and holistic senior managers, working together. The opposition between the two can lead to intense debates, but it is through debate that everyone can see the clear vision on the other side of the valley of death, which is more conducive to determining the direction of progress. A company that can consistently handle these two developmental stages—debate (chaos reigns) and purposeful advancement (clearing the chaos)—can be considered a strong adaptive organization. Such companies have two characteristics: 1. They tolerate debate and even encourage it. Intense and uncompromising debates revolve around issues that need to be studied, and participants can speak freely regardless of their position or background. 2. They can make clear decisions, accept clear decisions, and unite the entire organization to support that decision. Organizations with these two characteristics are better equipped to handle strategic turning points.
The vision on the other side of the valley of death represents a new industry order that is difficult to foresee before the transformation occurs. When managers do not see this new world, they do not have a mental blueprint. The process of crossing a strategic turning point must go through a period of confusion, experimentation, and chaos before thoughts can be clarified, a single direction determined, and the layers of fog cleared to reach the destination on the other side of the valley of death. We must listen to the prophecies of Cassandras, actively provoke debate, and continuously explain the company's new direction to make it clearer. Economic losses and personnel changes are inevitable. We must also recognize and accept the fact that not everyone will safely reach the other side; those who cannot survive will face a life vastly different from before. Undoubtedly, crossing the valley of death set by strategic turning points is the greatest ordeal an organizational enterprise must endure. However, when tenfold factors press us, we have no choice but to adapt or succumb to inevitable decline.
Chapter 9 The Internet: Signal or Noise? Threat or Hope?#
In summary, the emergence of this miracle is the result of the combined action of four factors: the continuous development of the Internet, the feasibility of connecting a large number of computers on local networks to larger networks through "standard rail gauge," the spread of multimedia to personal computers, and Berners-Lee's retrieval methods. Just as a chemical substance with certain components can spontaneously ignite, these factors have greatly increased public interest in the Internet.
In summary, the emergence of this miracle is the result of the combined action of four factors: the continuous development of the Internet, the feasibility of connecting a large number of computers on local networks to larger networks through "standard rail gauge," the spread of multimedia to personal computers, and Berners-Lee's retrieval methods. Just as a chemical substance with certain components can spontaneously ignite, these factors have greatly increased public interest in the Internet.
Chapter 10 Career Turning Points#
I have always believed that everyone, whether an employee or a freelancer, is like an independent businessman. Your career is almost your business, and you are your own CEO. Like the CEO of a large company, you must be responsible for market forces, fend off competitors, and utilize substitutes; there are other ways to do what you do, and you should be aware of this possibility. Your responsibility is to protect your business from harm and to position yourself to benefit from changes in the work environment.
Many factors are involved in dealing with strategic turning points. The most important and also the most difficult is to be vigilant about changes in your environment. When you work within a company, you often remain unaffected by many things happening in the world that relate to the smooth operation of the company you work for. When you got this job, even if you deep down knew it could not be the job you would do for the rest of your career, you might still silently sacrifice your benefits for the company. However, ignoring the environment in which your company operates is like being the last to know that potential changes will affect your career, just like the CEO of a large company.
· Do these anecdotes suggest that change may happen to you?
· How does a significant change indicate your situation?
· Can you find clues to this change in the business information released by the company?
· Can you predict from the company's financial situation that this change is about to happen to you?
· Can you express your concerns to your boss?
· If you are affected by this change, what will you do?
· How likely is it that your company will be affected by industry changes?
· Are those industry changes temporary setbacks for your company, or signs of long-term industry restructuring? The distinction is crucial because your company can recover from the former without affecting your career; however, the latter will have lasting impacts on your company.
· Consider how developments in other industries might trigger a chain reaction affecting your work. When a new machine or computer system appears, will it change the way work is done in your department? Can you use this new technology to do your job as before? Are you confident in learning this new method? If the answers are all negative, what should you do?
· Perhaps your company is losing to a competitor. What does that mean? Is it possible that your industry is fine, but your company has problems? Or is the entire industry undergoing a transformation? It is essential to raise and answer these questions because your criteria for judging things change with the environment. If your company is losing to competitors, you can continue to leverage your skills; you just need to find a way to escape from this sinking ship and jump onto a ship more likely to navigate the competitive waters successfully. On the other hand, if the industry undergoes fundamental changes and you do not adapt your skills, you will have no footing in either winning or losing companies. This situation can indeed be classified as a career turning point.
You always try to convince yourself that because you are excellent, you will not be affected by this change. You might think, "This may happen to others, but not to me." This is a dangerous thought. This is the "success inertia" at work. There is no essential difference between career turning points triggered by environmental changes and those triggered by personal changes.
Denial can stem from two completely different sources. If you have been very successful in your career, the inertia of success may prevent you from recognizing danger. If you are merely indecisive, afraid of change, and reluctant to give up what you have achieved, you may be unwilling to confront the reality of your situation. Any form of denial requires time, causing you to miss the best moment to act at or near the turning point.
Just as in managing a business, people rarely think about changing careers early. Most of the time, when you look back, you wish you had made the change sooner. In reality, making a change during the positive development phase of your current job—when everything is going well—is much more painful than making the same change when your career begins to decline. Moreover, if you are the first to leverage a career turning point, you may find the best opportunities in the new job. Simply put, the early bird gets the worm, while the latecomer only gets the leftovers.
The early awareness of a career turning point is extremely valuable. Just as athletes train for competitions, this is your time to prepare for change. Imagine yourself in different roles. Try to understand these roles. Talk to people who play these roles. Ask yourself some relevant questions. Ask yourself how you can excel in these roles. Train your mind for significant changes. Experimentation is a key method for preparing for change. That banker/stockbroker began preparing to transition to business news while still working as a stockbroker. This served several purposes: it improved his writing skills, tested the feasibility and practicality of future changes, and established connections with potential business resources before giving up his primary source of income. In doing so, he demonstrated that if he fully committed to writing, he could indeed make a living.
When you begin to cross the valley of death in your career, it is crucial to visualize what you want to achieve. Ask yourself the following questions:
· What do you think the characteristics of your industry will be in a year or two?
· Is this the industry you want to be in?
· Is your company in a favorable position for success in this industry?
· What skills do you need to advance in your career?
· Has anyone set an example for you regarding the career achievements you want to achieve?
Self-dialogue can help you recognize the existing career turning points, and dialogues about the nature of your future will help you focus and allow you to move forward step by step, rather than rushing forward under the pressure of the external world. Two treasures can help you cross the valley of death in your career: clarity and conviction. Clarity refers to having a clear and accurate understanding of the direction of your career: knowing what your career will look like and also knowing what it should not look like. Conviction refers to your determination to cross the valley of death in your career, emerging on the other side of the position, meeting the standards you have already set. When a company crosses the valley of death, it involves navigating strategic turning points, and the CEO must provide a clear description of the prospects of the new industry, leading the entire company through the valley together. As the CEO of your own career, you must also provide vision and commitment for yourself. Both are daunting. Through self-dialogue, clarifying the direction of progress, and maintaining your conviction despite waking up in the middle of the night filled with doubts, both are challenging. However, you have no choice. If you remain passive and inactive, you will take action reactively. As an individual, you only have one career, and your best chance of success at a career turning point is to seize it, focus, and give it your all, without any hesitation or wavering.
At such times, it is tempting to look back, but the negative consequences can be terrifying. Do not complain about things themselves; they will never return to the past. Invest all your energy in adapting to the new world, learning new skills, and shaping your environment. The old world offers limited opportunities or none at all, while the new world presents a brilliant future worth risking for.
I have always believed that everyone, whether an employee or a freelancer, is like an independent businessman. Your career is almost your business, and you are your own CEO. Like the CEO of a large company, you must be responsible for market forces, fend off competitors, and utilize substitutes; there are other ways to do what you do, and you should be aware of this possibility. Your responsibility is to protect your business from harm and to position yourself to benefit from changes in the work environment.
Many factors are involved in dealing with strategic turning points. The most important and also the most difficult is to be vigilant about changes in your environment. When you work within a company, you often remain unaffected by many things happening in the world that relate to the smooth operation of the company you work for. When you got this job, even if you deep down knew it could not be the job you would do for the rest of your career, you might still silently sacrifice your benefits for the company. However, ignoring the environment in which your company operates is like being the last to know that potential changes will affect your career, just like the CEO of a large company.
· Do these anecdotes suggest that change may happen to you?
· How does a significant change indicate your situation?
· Can you find clues to this change in the business information released by the company?
· Can you predict from the company's financial situation that this change is about to happen to you?
· Can you express your concerns to your boss?
· If you are affected by this change, what will you do?
· How likely is it that your company will be affected by industry changes?
· Are those industry changes temporary setbacks for your company, or signs of long-term industry restructuring? The distinction is crucial because your company can recover from the former without affecting your career; however, the latter will have lasting impacts on your company.
· Consider how developments in other industries might trigger a chain reaction affecting your work. When a new machine or computer system appears, will it change the way work is done in your department? Can you use this new technology to do your job as before? Are you confident in learning this new method? If the answers are all negative, what should you do?
· Perhaps your company is losing to a competitor. What does that mean? Is it possible that your industry is fine, but your company has problems? Or is the entire industry undergoing a transformation? It is essential to raise and answer these questions because your criteria for judging things change with the environment. If your company is losing to competitors, you can continue to leverage your skills; you just need to find a way to escape from this sinking ship and jump onto a ship more likely to navigate the competitive waters successfully. On the other hand, if the industry undergoes fundamental changes and you do not adapt your skills, you will have no footing in either winning or losing companies. This situation can indeed be classified as a career turning point.
You always try to convince yourself that because you are excellent, you will not be affected by this change. You might think, "This may happen to others, but not to me." This is a dangerous thought. This is the "success inertia" at work. There is no essential difference between career turning points triggered by environmental changes and those triggered by personal changes.
Denial can stem from two completely different sources. If you have been very successful in your career, the inertia of success may prevent you from recognizing danger. If you are merely indecisive, afraid of change, and reluctant to give up what you have achieved, you may be unwilling to confront the reality of your situation. Any form of denial requires time, causing you to miss the best moment to act at or near the turning point.
Just as in managing a business, people rarely think about changing careers early. Most of the time, when you look back, you wish you had made the change sooner. In reality, making a change during the positive development phase of your current job—when everything is going well—is much more painful than making the same change when your career begins to decline. Moreover, if you are the first to leverage a career turning point, you may find the best opportunities in the new job. Simply put, the early bird gets the worm, while the latecomer only gets the leftovers.
The early awareness of a career turning point is extremely valuable. Just as athletes train for competitions, this is your time to prepare for change. Imagine yourself in different roles. Try to understand these roles. Talk to people who play these roles. Ask yourself some relevant questions. Ask yourself how you can excel in these roles. Train your mind for significant changes. Experimentation is a key method for preparing for change. That banker/stockbroker began preparing to transition to business news while still working as a stockbroker. This served several purposes: it improved his writing skills, tested the feasibility and practicality of future changes, and established connections with potential business resources before giving up his primary source of income. In doing so, he demonstrated that if he fully committed to writing, he could indeed make a living.
When you begin to cross the valley of death in your career, it is crucial to visualize what you want to achieve. Ask yourself the following questions:
· What do you think the characteristics of your industry will be in a year or two?
· Is this the industry you want to be in?
· Is your company in a favorable position for success in this industry?
· What skills do you need to advance in your career?
· Has anyone set an example for you regarding the career achievements you want to achieve?
Self-dialogue can help you recognize the existing career turning points, and dialogues about the nature of your future will help you focus and allow you to move forward step by step, rather than rushing forward under the pressure of the external world. Two treasures can help you cross the valley of death in your career: clarity and conviction. Clarity refers to having a clear and accurate understanding of the direction of your career: knowing what your career will look like and also knowing what it should not look like. Conviction refers to your determination to cross the valley of death in your career, emerging on the other side of the position, meeting the standards you have already set. When a company crosses the valley of death, it involves navigating strategic turning points, and the CEO must provide a clear description of the prospects of the new industry, leading the entire company through the valley together. As the CEO of your own career, you must also provide vision and commitment for yourself. Both are daunting. Through self-dialogue, clarifying the direction of progress, and maintaining your conviction despite waking up in the middle of the night filled with doubts, both are challenging. However, you have no choice. If you remain passive and inactive, you will take action reactively. As an individual, you only have one career, and your best chance of success at a career turning point is to seize it, focus, and give it your all, without any hesitation or wavering.
At such times, it is tempting to look back, but the negative consequences can be terrifying. Do not complain about things themselves; they will never return to the past. Invest all your energy in adapting to the new world, learning new skills, and shaping your environment. The old world offers limited opportunities or none at all, while the new world presents a brilliant future worth risking for.
Chapter 11 Life Turning Points#
But I have one last question: "So why do you still want to perform the surgery yourself?" He thought for a moment and finally said, "You know, throughout the entire process of studying medicine, professors always instill in you the golden rule that prostate cancer must be treated with surgery; I think it still influences my thinking."
In Dr. Steinmetz's article (the one I downloaded from COMPUSERVE when I first started this arduous journey), he said, "…when faced with a serious illness that we cannot understand, (each of us) becomes childishly afraid and looks for someone who can tell us what to do. For doctors, their highest responsibility is to present patients with various options for treating prostate cancer." I believe we are still far from this ideal.
But I have one last question: "So why do you still want to perform the surgery yourself?" He thought for a moment and finally said, "You know, throughout the entire process of studying medicine, professors always instill in you the golden rule that prostate cancer must be treated with surgery; I think it still influences my thinking."
In Dr. Steinmetz's article (the one I downloaded from COMPUSERVE when I first started this arduous journey), he said, "…when faced with a serious illness that we cannot understand, (each of us) becomes childishly afraid and looks for someone who can tell us what to do. For doctors, their highest responsibility is to present patients with various options for treating prostate cancer." I believe we are still far from this ideal.
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